Climate change

Abstract: Depuis maintenant une quinzaine d’années, le Sénégal a mis en place un programme de subvention d’intrants agricoles à destination de ses producteurs agricoles visant à leur fournir engrais, semences et matériel agricole. Cependant, très peu d’études ont été réalisées pour en évaluer les impacts. Ce rapport présente les résultats détaillés d’une étude visant à évaluer les effets de ce programme dans deux régions, la vallée du fleuve Sénégal et le bassin arachidier, au travers de plusieurs dispositifs de collecte de données, et notamment d’une enquête auprès des producteurs agricoles. Les résultats mettent en lumière plusieurs faiblesses du programme. La mise en œuvre du programme diffère d’une région à l’autre et les critères de sélection des bénéficiaires souffrent d’un certain flou. Les bénéficiaires du programme tendent à être sélectionnés parmi les producteurs les plus grands, mieux éduqués et bénéficiant d’un capital social plus important. L’estimation des effets du programme en prenant en compte ce biais de sélection montre bien un effet positif sur l’utilisation d’engrais inorganique, et dans le cas du bassin arachidier, également sur le recours aux semence certifiées. Cependant, aucun effet ni sur les rendements des principales cultures ni sur les performances économiques des bénéficiaires n’est observé dans les deux régions de l’étude. Cela s’explique notamment par les dysfonctionnements du programme, tels que les retards de livraison des intrants ou leur mauvaise qualité, mais aussi par un effet d’éviction sur les achats d’engrais commerciaux, notamment dans la vallée du fleuve Sénégal, qui résulte d’un ciblage inefficace des bénéficiaires. Au final, le programme de subvention des intrants agricoles ne permet pas d’augmenter la production ou le revenu des producteurs bénéficiaires. Le rapport conclut sur des recommandations pour améliorer l’efficacité de cet outil essentiel de la politique agricole Sénégalaise. [For the past fifteen years, Senegal has implemented a program to subsidize agricultural inputs for its producers with the aim of providing them with fertilizers, seeds, and agricultural equipment. However, very few studies have been conducted to evaluate its impacts. This report presents detailed results of a study aimed at assessing the effects of this program in the Senegal River Valley and the Bassin Arachidier, using several data collection mechanisms, including a survey of agricultural producers. The results highlight several weaknesses of the program. The implementation of the program varies from one region to another, and the selection criteria lack clarity. Program beneficiaries tend to be selected among the larger producers who are better educated and have greater social capital. Estimating the effects of the program while accounting for this selection bias does show a positive effect on the use of inorganic fertilizer and, in the case of the Bassin Arachidier, also on the use of certified seeds. However, no effect on the yields of the main crops nor on economic performance of farms is observed in either region. This can be explained by the program's deficiences, such as delays in input delivery or input poor quality, but also by a crowding-out effect on the purchases of commercial fertilizers, particularly in the Senegal River Valley, resulting from inefficient targeting of beneficiaries. In the end, the agricultural input subsidy program does not increase production nor the income of beneficiary producers.]

Abstract: The Common Agricultural Policy Strategic Plans (CSPs) of the EU Member States (MSs) introduce a new CAP delivery model for the programming period 2023-2027, establishing a common framework for CAP payments, while granting MSs the flexibility to design interventions for direct payments, sectoral interventions, and rural development tailored to the needs of their agricultural sector. This report serves a dual purpose: Firstly, it provides an overview of the CSPs Master file, which consolidates all 28 CSPs to facilitate a structured analysis of the new CAP, along with essential concepts characteristic to the CSPs. Secondly, the report presents a comparative analysis of the initially approved CSPs, focusing on the financial aspects and specifics of their implementation across MSs, as well as some insights into the contributions to organic farming. The analysis of all CSPs highlights significant diversity and heterogeneity in the interventions adopted by the MSs. The CAP is supported by 307 billion EUR, comprising 264 billion EUR from the EU Budget and 43 billion EUR from national co-financing. Direct Payments are the most dominant component, with the Basic Income Support for Sustainability remaining the most important CAP tool to support EU farmer income, accounting 51% of direct payments, followed by eco-schemes at 24%. Rural Development allocations also show considerable diversity across intervention types and MSs.

Abstract: This report analyses the farm-level data collection practices of selected public and private sustainability-related certification schemes, with the aim of providing insights into synergies and gaps for the upcoming Farm Sustainability Data Network, which will collect data on environmental and social issues. The analysis is based on online surveys, semi-semi-structured interviews and desk research carried out between June and October 2023. Out of 188 common agricultural policy (CAP) interventions associated with certification schemes within the CAP strategic plans of the Member States, 25 relevant certification schemes were pre-selected for consideration in this report. A total of 10 respondents (i.e. certification agencies and, in some cases, responsible public authorities) participated, covering 16 certification schemes, resulting in response rates of 48 % for respondents and 64 % for certification schemes. Key findings relate to the monitoring practices of operators by certification agencies, data collection methods, data sources, data management practices, data exchange and costs incurred. Respondents rated the data collection process as somewhat costly for both certification agencies and farmers. The main challenges and burdens of the data collection process identified by the respondents are also outlined. The analysis indicates that, while data on environmental and social sustainability are available, considerable efforts are required to collect quantitative data and ensure that they are consistent, digitalised and accessible. The voluntary nature of participation in certification schemes limits the representativeness of the data collected and introduces selection bias. Furthermore, increasing farmers’ understanding of the purpose and benefits of data collection is crucial for motivating farmers. Providing incentives and collaborating with organisations that have direct contact with farmers can increase farmers’ willingness to participate.

Abstract: Livestock production is responsible for most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from European agriculture. To achieve the climate targets in the European Union, reducing emissions from the food chain, and within that from livestock production, is imperative. Along with structural changes, management and technological improvements on farms have an important role in reducing GHG emissions. However, our understanding of the uptake of low-GHG practices is limited, with uneven evidence across countries and practices. This report adds to the evidence base on the uptake of mitigation practices by presenting the results of two surveys, one done with dairy farmers in Poland about the use of breeding indices, and the other with pig producers in France about multi-phase feeding. The results provide evidence of the importance of farm size and specialisation in practice uptake, while also pointing to the role of the processors in the case of milk production. The most common barriers are high cost, low return on investment and a perception that the farm is too small to implement such practices. Adopters mentioned the benefits of improved milk yield and genetics and also better knowledge of the herd in the case of the breeding index, and reduced feed costs and nitrogen excretion with multi-phase feeding. Simulations of greenhouse gas emissions associated with the adopters’ and non-adopters’ farming systems showed a potential reduction of GHG emission intensity in both cases, namely 9% for milk production with using the breeding index in the herd and 3% for pig meat production with multi-phase feeding.

Abstract: Soil loss by water erosion represents a key threat to land degradation worldwide. This study employs an integrated quantitative modelling approach to estimate its long-term global sustainability impacts. The global biophysical model estimates a mean increase of soil erosion rates of between 30 and 66% over the period 2015–2070 under alternative climate-economic scenarios, assuming different greenhouse gas concentration trajectories. In a subsequent step, projected soil erosion rates are converted into land productivity losses and inputted into an economic global simulation model to identify those regional hotspots where the greatest market tensions are expected to occur. The headline result is that of a global economic contraction of up to 625 billion US$ by the year 2070. Moreover, soil erosion represents an acute challenge to food security in vulnerable regions (Africa and some tropical regions), where for certain crops (particularly oilseeds) the threat of shortages is potentially significant. Under the worst-case scenario, global primary agricultural production losses could amount to 352 million tonnes by 2070. Exploring different long-term socioeconomic-environmental pathways confirms the merits of sustainable management practises in coping with market and environmental stresses arising from soil erosion that limits the global increase of land used for food consumption to 115,000 km2 above the long run baseline. Finally, free (and fair) trade is essential to allow less affected regions to expand (marginally) their production, thereby cushioning the market tensions that are expected to occur in more acutely affected areas of the world.

Abstract: The European Green Deal and its farm-to-fork (F2F) strategy have made sustainability in the food system an EU policy priority. It aims to help the EU’s current food system transition towards a fairer, healthier and environmentally friendlier one while maintaining its economic viability. This report seeks to provide a comparative empirical assessment of sustainability-enhancing initiatives adopted by private operators in the EU food chain. The assessment is based on data collected through semi-structured interviews with 37 representatives from food chain operators, associations, and related organizations. In total, 314 sustainability initiatives were identified, highlighting operators' efforts to promote more sustainable food production and consumption processes. These initiatives primarily emphasize the economic dimension, followed by the environmental aspect, while the social/health dimension receives comparatively less attention. The results also indicate that market demand and supply requirements are the primary drivers for adopting sustainability initiatives. Conversely, the main barriers to adoption include the lack of recognition of sustainability efforts by consumers, insufficient public support, and unclear policies regarding sustainability. To foster the adoption of sustainability initiatives, respondents identified the need for increased incentives, funding for enhanced sustainable solutions, and government technical support as crucial catalysts.

Abstract: Under the Green Deal, the European Commission (EC) has set a target of 25% of the EU's agricultural land to be cultivated organically. The literature indicates that this target is challenging to reach in the current budgetary framework. We use the IFM-CAP model and a utility-based framework to estimate the required monetary incentive for a farm to convert into organic. Then we use simulations to estimate the budgetary cost to reach the organic target in the EU level. Our results show that in order to reach the 25% organic target, a budget increase is required. This increase requires budgetary transfers from other CAP interventions, and thus more research is required on the cost effectiveness of the organic target regarding the environmental benefits in relation to other interventions.

Abstract: The Integrated Modelling Platform for Agro-economic Commodity and Policy Analysis (iMAP) provides in-house policy support to the European Commission by assessing a wide range of policies and topics related to sustainable food systems (SFS). Substantially supported by DG AGRI, iMAP is constantly further developed to meet evolving policy needs. Although many developments are ongoing, this report outlines iMAP’s enhanced analytical capacity to capture the multidimensional aspects of SFS and assess policy impacts. Considerable progress has been made in capturing production and environmental aspects of policies and strategies, particularly those related to the European Green Deal (EGD). Significant developments have been achieved in integrating biophysical models, other sector-specific models, and satellite imagery data into iMAP’s analytical framework. However, comprehensive modelling of environmental aspects of farming practices remains challenging due to the complex interplay of biological and agronomic factors, coupled with data limitations. Limited data on specific aspects of consumer behaviour also remains a constraint for comprehensive assessments. The report shows that iMAP, along with interdisciplinary collaboration and tool integration, provides a suitable framework for assessing EGD-related policies. However, the report also highlights general uncertainties, scientific knowledge gaps, and data constraints that limit a full assessment of all aspects of the transition towards more SFS.

Abstract: This paper analyses how climate change might impact EU agricultural markets by mid-century, considering a large ensemble of climate change projections from different models, market adjustments and trade feedbacks. Applying consistent climate change driven productivity shocks to a global multi-commodity agricultural market model we show that the negative direct effects from climate change on crop production in the EU could be offset by market and trade adjustments. The simulations reveal that climate change has heterogeneous impacts across regions. EU farming sector, in particular, might actually benefit from climate change as the impacts on agricultural productivity are expected to be more severe in important non-EU production regions such as US, Russia and Ukraine, depending on the crop. Higher producer prices for important crops such as wheat, barley, grain maize, rice and soybeans, lead to an increase in EU production and exports. For instance EU wheat production could increase by 13% and exports by 28%, with 19% higher farm incomes on average than in a business-as-usual situation. Our study has several limitations. In particular, we do not consider CO2 fertilization effects and direct effect from climate change on livestock sector, climate variability and extreme weather effects. Notwithstanding, our findings highlight the heterogeneity of climate change impacts across regions, specifically Northern versus Southern Europe, and the importance of market and trade adjustments as economic adaptation mechanisms to climate change.

Abstract: While countries have agreed in the Paris-agreement on common rules to report greenhouse gas emissions, the design of domestic climate policy regimes remains in the national domain. This may cause different carbon prices for climate gasses across countries, between a country's emission sectors, and within the same sector. Our focus is on methane, which is a major emitter from agriculture, but also linked to livestock farming which is a core activity in agriculture worldwide. We analyse the potential effects of domestic carbon pricing regimes for agriculture in a non-cooperative game theoretic setting using a global agricultural sector model. Our results indicate no ‘race to the bottom’ to apply carbon pricing regimes that result in lowest implicit carbon prices for methane. Enforcing a uniform regime can reduce additional global warming with up to 0.02 °C, but runs the risk of agreeing to lower emission cuts than a nationally determined choice would suggest.